This page focuses specifically on calendar year 2024 — the period from January 2024 through December 2024. Statistics are drawn from publicly available studies, primary company announcements, and contemporaneous analyst reports.
The "skeptic predictions" cited in the opening section represent a meaningful share of analyst sentiment in early- and mid-2024 — they were not fringe positions. Goldman Sachs's June 2024 report in particular was widely covered and represented the most-cited skeptic case of the year. Including them allows the reader to evaluate the gap between contemporaneous expectations and outcomes. Data is refreshed quarterly. If you run into any issues or have a study to suggest, contact us at research@aibehaviorindex.org.